Steven Den Beste muses that although Bush might not be able to topple Kerry with the "masterstroke" he fantasized in January 2003, Kerry's position is nonethless very unstable. He writes: "You see a lot of articles and blog posts which say, 'If the election were held today, this is how the electoral votes would probably split.'" Unfortunately for his case, many compilations of polls show Kerry winning the Electoral College. Although he is a persuasive writer, Den Beste falls into the very trap that he warns about in "Just do it," an excellent discussion of magical thinking in the business world.
From DailyKos.com:
AP incorrectly states bush leads in electoral votes
by artemisia
Sat Jul 24th, 2004 at 18:04:30 GMT
Hedgehog report: kerry over bush 315-223 note: run by republican activist david wissing. rasmussen: Kerry with a 227-208 lead over bush. note: also run by a gop activist. http://electionprojection.com shows kerry over bush 327-211 and a popular vote lead by kerry of 51.5% to 46.7%. http://electoral-vote.com shows kerry over bush 310-217. Robert Silvey: Kerry 291, bush 247
While I agree with him that the polls don't mean a lot, they do mean something. This takes us to his masterstroke item. Bush is in a bind here, because anything that he does is likely to backfire. He no longer has the favor of the gods. He in somewhat the same position that Gore was. The media are ready to cut his throat at any opportunity, even if it means using discredited material. Ashcroft is hurting him a lot by almost deliberately offending the libertarian sector, where many are really in the same position as the Democrat-leaning Naderites. They don't want to throw their votes away by voting for a Libertarian candidate, but they are disgusted by Ashcroft's attacks on basic freedoms.
I found "Just do it" much more interesting. Although I am not an engineer, I too have often said to a client, "Anything is easy if you don't have to do it." From an engineering standpoint, I would say that the polls show a trend against Bush that seems to be gaining momentum. The tide is clearly not running with him. He's got many fingers in many holes in the dike. What Den Beste call the possible masterstroke I would consider really just another finger.
In that sense, Den Beste falls into the very magical thinking that he correctly punctures in his item. Many of Kerry's supporters are not so much Kerry as anti-Bush. Others are either Yellow Dog Democrats or so committed at this point that they might as well be. That would indicate that no attacks on Kerry are really going to be sufficient to get them to change their minds. They hate Bush. Here again the issue of momentum enters. When it comes to love and hate, human nature is a lot like milk. One drop of vinegar curdles a quart of milk. What does it take to uncurdle it?
Den Beste represents an important sector of the Right. These are people who write rather well and have considerable technical expertise in their fields. They provide a kind of collective political "Guide for the Perplexed," but they aren't quite as profound as Maimonides (whom the Right would need at this point to try to resolve their contradictions).
If you read the "Just Do It" essay, he's even wrong on his basic point. He quotes Tech Central's Megan McArdle
In my previous life as a technology consultant, I was often handed plans in which the critical step seemed to entail the use of expensive equipment that the client didn't have, and had no intention of installing. It was not unheard of, in fact, for plans to require equipment that hadn't actually been invented. The first time it happened, I naively went to my project manager to inquire about it."What happens here?" I asked him, pointing to the space between the two steps that I couldn't quite figure out how to bridge.
His eyes crinkled with a sort of world-weary sympathy as he nodded towards that pregnant space. "That," he intoned solemnly, "is where the magic happens."
So this sounds quite neurotic, doesn't? Here are these awful Dilbert executives wishing on lady bugs. Except that it is perfectly acceptable and standard project development policy to assume the invention of new technology to fit gaps in long-range programs. That's how NASA got to the Moon and beyond. They presumed that the necessary technology would be invented, and it was. I learned this in a policy planning seminar given by the late Herman Kahn at the Hudson Institute when it was still in Westchester County.
The Right is basically pessimistic when it comes to creativity. They don't like creative people, except in the narrowest interests of carrying out their control systems. Den Best can't handle criticism, you say. That's the Right in general. It's one of their defining characteristics. They demand obedience, not spontaneity. NASA worked because its magic was positive. The Right's magic is negative.
When Reagan militarized the Space Shuttle he destroyed NASA. I think that people like Den Best know that. They also know how to sing for their suppers. They are important because I think they talk to what are now being called persuadables. We can't let them dominate the right-leaning technical sector by default.
Posted by jules_siegel at July 25, 2004 08:59 AM | TrackBack