July 16, 2005
Emily decreases to category four; Cancun Hotel Zone evacuation begins Sunday morning
[Updated at 8:33 a.m.] CANCUN, July 17--The government of the state of Quintana Roo announced that Emily was expected to hit south of Playa del Carmen around 7 p.m EDT Sunday if it maintains its current trajectory. Torrential rains and 95 mph winds will prevail throughout the alert area beginning around 3 p.m. EDT Sunday. They now rate the storm as category four.
Unofficial reports claimed last night that the path was shifting toward landfall between Tulum and Boca Paila, even further south, which would leave Cancun on the outer edge of the hurricane. The five-day National Hurricane Center forecast map above shows the center of the hurricane passing south of Cancun near Playa del Carmen. If the trend continues, Cancun may escape a direct hit, but it's not anything we can count on.
Many hotels on Cancun Island transfered their guests to the mainland yesterday. Today's newspapers report that the full evacuation of the Hotel Zone will begin at 6 a.m. The government is evacuating a one kilometer strip of Caribbean coast all along the Yucatan peninsula. Holbox and Contoy islands (north of Cancun), Isla Mujeres (in front of Cancun) and Puerto Morelos (32 km. south) have already been evacuated.
I live on an island in the lagoon formed by the main island of Cancun Hotel Zone, and will make the decision whether to stay or leave some time today. Most of my neighbors are staying. Unless the storm shifts toward the north, Cancun will receive some very severe weather, but should escape major damage. The operative word here is "should" (as in whistling hopefully).
During Gilbert, the category five hurricane that hit Cancun directly in September, 1988, the Hotel Zone was evacuated, but at least one hotel, the Sheraton remained in operation throughout the storm. Some sections of the island of Cancun were flooded, but all hotels and other buildings remained intact, although some sustained moderate to severe damages. No tourist casualties were reported. Since then, there have been several hurricane alerts, but Cancun was spared when their paths changed direction.
Further information in English direct from the Cancun Hotel Zone will be posted here as the situation evolves.
See CafeCancun.com for the latest updates.